Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez (52-1-2, 35 KOs) vs. Sergey Kovalev (34-3-1, 29 KOs)
When: Saturday, November 2, 2019 at 10PM EDT
Where: MGM Grand Garden Arena, Las Vegas, Nevada
TV: PPV
Weight Class: WBO Light Heavyweight Championship
Canelo challenges WBO Light Heavyweight Champion Sergey Kovalev for his title in the main event of huge DAZN boxing card. Odds LAS VEGAS, NEVADA - OCTOBER 30: Boxer Canelo Alvarez poses blows a. Canelo vs Kovalev BREAKING NEWS, preview, undercard, tale of the tape, streaming, scorecard, highlights, result, purses, fan reaction, referee, judges Canelo vs Kovalev News TV Stats Odds.
Betting Odds: Canelo Alvarez (-400), Sergey Kovalev (+325)
Fight Analysis:
Sergey Kovalev defends his WBO Light Heavyweight Title against Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez on November 2 at the MGM in Las Vegas. For Canelo, this is a chance to win a belt at 175, which would be the fourth division in which he has won a title—quite a feat at this high of a weight where the divisions are more spread out. But to do so, he will have to unseat a veteran champion in Kovalev, one of the more accomplished 175-pounders of this generation. Coming off a big win in August, he showed he is still a handful. Who can get the upper-hand in this one?
A few things stand out about this fight. First off is that it's a little surprising to see Canelo at this high of a weight. Having fought at 154 pounds just three years ago, a jump to 175 is quite a leap. He has fought over middleweight poundage just once when he beat the far less-threatening Rocky Fielding in a 168-pound bout. At just 5'8,' he qualifies as a pretty small light heavyweight. On the one hand, you can see the thought process behind the move to make this fight. Kovalev is past his prime, and Canelo can add yet another big name to his resume, and as you can see by the odds, he is favored heavily to do just that. Still, it's an ambitious move by Team Canelo. Kovalev is a big 6-foot guy, and with 29 KOs in 34 wins, Canelo will certainly get a sample of what light heavyweight power feels like.
Kovalev's last fight showed both sides of the coin. He's a bit more ragged than he used to be—slightly less-lethal, a bit more reachable, and getting a little long in the tooth. His opponent Anthony Yarde—a young unbeaten KO artist, had Kovalev in some big trouble and was very resolute in his own right, getting schooled early to make a mid-rounds surge. But all those wars and everything Kovalev has been through has given him the ability to remain calm in the eye of the storm. He got through it, and pretty soon, it was Yarde who was reeling—stopped in the 11th round of a grueling title defense. I like the way Kovalev not only bounced back from that but also came back from stoppage losses to Andre Ward and Eleider Alvarez. Just when it seemed he was through, he beat Alvarez clearly in the rematch, before thwarting the challenge of the ambitious and talented Yarde.
By the same token, Kovalev isn't the same fighter he once was. Nothing against him. After all, why would he be? He has been near or at the top of the division for the better part of a decade, taking on a whos-who of what has been an underrated era of light heavyweight boxing—guys like Jean Pascal, Bernard Hopkins, and Andre Ward. He can still hit. More of a brute in the past, he has developed some wrinkles and nuance over the years and is actually quite cagey now. He is long, has a good jab, and can still put that right hand over with a lot of authority. But he's a little more brittle. His legs do a little dance when he's hit real solid. His resistance to body-shots appears to have waned with time, and opponents know this.
That's just one of the style-components that might give one pause on backing the underdog. Canelo lustily attacks the body, and with a longer target than what he's accustomed, look for him to double-up on that for this matchup. A lot of people neglect the true brilliance of Canelo. Even if you think he lost both fights to GGG and maybe even another one along the way, you can't really question his credentials. At just 28, he already beat names like Shane Mosley, Austin Trout, Josesito Lopez, Alfredo Angulo, Erislandy Lara, Miguel Cotto, Amir Khan, two fights with GGG, and Daniel Jacobs. It's hard to touch his credentials.
Canelo is a completely together fighter. His technique is crisp. He's never out-of-school. There is nothing that he can't do well. Even his weaknesses aren't really drawbacks. He might be a bit stumpy, especially at this weight, but it's never hurt him. He's not that quick, but it never seems like speed-deficits bother him or hinder his ability to fight. He isn't a one-punch KO artist perhaps, but he's still a punishing hitter who can batter his opponents. Still, there are things he does well—exceptionally well
Alvarez has good vision of a fight—where he stands and exactly what's going on. He is the ultimate professional. Sometimes in a sport, you just marvel at a performer who delivers that utmost professionalism every single time. He's not going to undermine himself, get messed up mentally over emotions, or be anything less than perfectly prepared. Alvarez is always in stellar shape—physically and mentally. Canelo is not a guy who is going to blow it. In terms of what he does in the ring, he's very precise and well-schooled. He doesn't waste punches or come outside of himself. For the purposes of this fight, his best attribute might be his durability. He has been in the ring with some punishing fighters, and it's hard to remember a time when he was on the verge. He's been hurt before, as anyone would have been who has fought the same roster of opponents. But he's a very hard nut to crack. Can he keep that going at this high of a weight, against one of the division's all-time noted hitters?
In his prime, I think Kovalev represented a level of menace that would have forced Canelo to steer clear. When the 'Krusher' was wiping the floor with everyone, the mere idea of throwing a then-154 pound Canelo in there with him would have seemed maniacal. Now, however, Kovalev's shelf-date has passed, and while he still has the guile, champion's heart, and skills to win fights, I think this level is a bit out of reach. I'm going with Canelo in this one.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I'm betting on Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez to win at -400 betting odds. The size and power of Kovalev can't be neglected. But Canelo's durability and technique and the fact that he's still in his prime give him the edge against a version of Kovalev that is a depreciated facsimile of his peak-self. In a fight that will call upon all his resources, I think Kovalev at some point in this bout will come up empty.
Boxing Picks
- Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez Fight Analysis & Predictions
- Alexander Povetkin vs. Dillian Whyte Analysis & Picks
- Sergey Kovalev vs. Bektemir Melikuziev Odds & Prediction
- Ryan Garcia vs. Luke Campbell Picks – Odds & Fight Analysis
- Anthony Joshua vs. Kubrat Pulev Analysis & Picks
Free Sports Picks
Get $60 in free picks from 12 handicapping experts!
Click Here
- Canelo vs Kovalev odds: Explaining the large (opening) gap
Multi-division world champion and sports superstar Canelo Alvarez will reportedly challenge WBO light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev on November 2 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.
Canelo vs Kovalev has not yet been confirmed (as of 9/9 # 2:33 PM) but negotiations appear to be progressing and the fight appears imminent.
Why Canelo vs Kovalev?
It's obvious. Team Canelo thinks the much bigger Kovalev would be an easier assignment than a third fight with rival Gennady Golovkin. Moreover, fighting the Russian would give Canelo an opportunity to win a world title in his fourth weight class and enhance his legacy by defeating the consensus top-rated light heavyweight in the process.
At the elite level, the risk vs reward factor prevails in big fights, and Team Canelo believes Canelo vs Kovalev is the better option; especially considering Canelo would make a ton of money fighting either.
So, who has the upper-hand? Regardless of what experts think, one fighter will open as a healthy favorite.
Play vegas blackjack online, free. Canelo vs Kovalev odds
The smaller man, Alvarez, will be as much as a 7 to 1 favorite as projected by BettingInsiderJournal.com when the fight is announced. Kovalev will be a rough 4 to 1 underdog per the same outfit.
That's a bit surprising given Kovalev's size, pedigree and ring accomplishments. He's also regarded by many as the world's best light heavyweight.
Look for the Canelo vs Kovalev odds to shrink a bit prior to fight time. Uk licensed online casino. Nevertheless, the betting lines falsely suggest Alvarez should clearly have his way with 'Krusher.'
The opening odds certainly won't be reflective of threat Kovalev possesses. So, what are insiders seeing in this showdown?
1. Kovalev vs smaller, faster elite-level opponents
Everyone knows about Abel Sanchez's long and successful run as Golovkin's trainer. However, some don't realize Abel trained Kovalev, then a little-known newbie, for a brief stint. In fact, Sanchez proclaimed he guided the Russian to eight knockout wins and, for a short time, had both fighters in his stable concurrently and had them spar each other despite the size difference.
'Kovalev was afraid of Golovkin when he was in the ring with him,' recalled Sanchez. I couldn't spar them too much because Kovalev showed Gennady too much respect in the ring.'
'When he did spar Gennady, Sergey would fall apart and wouldn't pose much of a challenge for Golovkin. It was either too much respect or too much fear.'
Was it the hand-speed? The movement? The body attack?
In all fairness, Kovalev later insisted Sanchez was bitter because he was replaced by John David Jackson who, as Kovalev's now former trainer, would guide Sergey to the mountaintop of the division and the subsequent spoils that accompany success.
Kathy Duva, Sergey's promoter, also suggested Sanchez's comments were unfair, insisting that version of Sergey was still a work in progress when he trained under Sanchez.
One must wonder, though, what Team Canelo sees that makes them so eager to challenge the fearsome Kovalev. They obviously see something and it might be related to some of the apparent issues Kovalev had when sparring Golovkin.
2.Vulnerable to the body
When Canelo vs Kovalev was initially rumored, trainer Sanchez also suggested Canelo would defeat Kovalev with his bodywork. We've seen Kovalev get hit and hurt to the body, especially in his rematch with Ward. But Ward is a naturally bigger and rangier fighter than Canelo and their styles are different.
Nevertheless, remember how successful Canelo worked the body against the rangier Rocky Fielding last December? It was beautiful. It was violent. And most of all, Fielding had no answer for it.
Playing online poker in Kansas is easy to do once you read this article's expert advice about poker sites, bonuses, deposits, withdrawals, and more! Online poker kansas. The state of Kansas has regulated online gambling, which means players can play online poker for real money. Detailed Kansas Online Poker & Gambling Law Guide - Find out the current legislation status, and which US poker sites are accepting players from Kansas. Kansas offers a state lottery and pari-mutuel wagering options, but it is a long way from offering iGaming. There's little talk of online gaming and poker.
.. But Kovalev's backers would insist Rocky Fielding is certainly not Sergey Kovalev.
Expect to see Canelo try to work the body as he did with Fielding below. How much success he'll have remains to be seen.
3. Age / Recent Performances
Is Kovalev starting to slow down at 36? There was certainly no shame in losing to Andre Ward. Kovalev also redeemed himself well after losing his first bout with Eleider Alvarez. And more recently, Sergey rallied back to brilliantly knockout previously unbeaten Anthony Yarde after appearing to be on the verge of getting stopped himself.
Yes, Kovalev is getting touched up more these days but Canelo's advocates shouldn't place a great deal of emphasis on Sergey's age. After all, he arguably deserved the nod in the first Ward fight, was having his way with Alvarez in their first bout before getting caught with a big shot, and rebounded heroically to comeback and KO a young, hungry knockout artist in the 11th Round of a fight he was controlling.
Contrary to herd mentality, Kovalev hasn't been exposed as an old man; he's been exposed as a bad ass.
His most recent performances against Alvarez and Yarde tell us he has fine recuperative powers, a solid chin, and can stick and move like a pure boxer to win a fight on points if need be.
And aside from the great Andre Ward, he's decisively defeated every opponent he's face to date.
In his prime, I think Kovalev represented a level of menace that would have forced Canelo to steer clear. When the 'Krusher' was wiping the floor with everyone, the mere idea of throwing a then-154 pound Canelo in there with him would have seemed maniacal. Now, however, Kovalev's shelf-date has passed, and while he still has the guile, champion's heart, and skills to win fights, I think this level is a bit out of reach. I'm going with Canelo in this one.
My Prediction to Win the Fight:
I'm betting on Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez to win at -400 betting odds. The size and power of Kovalev can't be neglected. But Canelo's durability and technique and the fact that he's still in his prime give him the edge against a version of Kovalev that is a depreciated facsimile of his peak-self. In a fight that will call upon all his resources, I think Kovalev at some point in this bout will come up empty.
Boxing Picks
- Juan Francisco Estrada vs. Roman Gonzalez Fight Analysis & Predictions
- Alexander Povetkin vs. Dillian Whyte Analysis & Picks
- Sergey Kovalev vs. Bektemir Melikuziev Odds & Prediction
- Ryan Garcia vs. Luke Campbell Picks – Odds & Fight Analysis
- Anthony Joshua vs. Kubrat Pulev Analysis & Picks
Free Sports Picks
Get $60 in free picks from 12 handicapping experts!
Click Here
- Canelo vs Kovalev odds: Explaining the large (opening) gap
Multi-division world champion and sports superstar Canelo Alvarez will reportedly challenge WBO light heavyweight champion Sergey Kovalev on November 2 at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas.
Canelo vs Kovalev has not yet been confirmed (as of 9/9 # 2:33 PM) but negotiations appear to be progressing and the fight appears imminent.
Why Canelo vs Kovalev?
It's obvious. Team Canelo thinks the much bigger Kovalev would be an easier assignment than a third fight with rival Gennady Golovkin. Moreover, fighting the Russian would give Canelo an opportunity to win a world title in his fourth weight class and enhance his legacy by defeating the consensus top-rated light heavyweight in the process.
At the elite level, the risk vs reward factor prevails in big fights, and Team Canelo believes Canelo vs Kovalev is the better option; especially considering Canelo would make a ton of money fighting either.
So, who has the upper-hand? Regardless of what experts think, one fighter will open as a healthy favorite.
Play vegas blackjack online, free. Canelo vs Kovalev odds
The smaller man, Alvarez, will be as much as a 7 to 1 favorite as projected by BettingInsiderJournal.com when the fight is announced. Kovalev will be a rough 4 to 1 underdog per the same outfit.
That's a bit surprising given Kovalev's size, pedigree and ring accomplishments. He's also regarded by many as the world's best light heavyweight.
Look for the Canelo vs Kovalev odds to shrink a bit prior to fight time. Uk licensed online casino. Nevertheless, the betting lines falsely suggest Alvarez should clearly have his way with 'Krusher.'
The opening odds certainly won't be reflective of threat Kovalev possesses. So, what are insiders seeing in this showdown?
1. Kovalev vs smaller, faster elite-level opponents
Everyone knows about Abel Sanchez's long and successful run as Golovkin's trainer. However, some don't realize Abel trained Kovalev, then a little-known newbie, for a brief stint. In fact, Sanchez proclaimed he guided the Russian to eight knockout wins and, for a short time, had both fighters in his stable concurrently and had them spar each other despite the size difference.
'Kovalev was afraid of Golovkin when he was in the ring with him,' recalled Sanchez. I couldn't spar them too much because Kovalev showed Gennady too much respect in the ring.'
'When he did spar Gennady, Sergey would fall apart and wouldn't pose much of a challenge for Golovkin. It was either too much respect or too much fear.'
Was it the hand-speed? The movement? The body attack?
In all fairness, Kovalev later insisted Sanchez was bitter because he was replaced by John David Jackson who, as Kovalev's now former trainer, would guide Sergey to the mountaintop of the division and the subsequent spoils that accompany success.
Kathy Duva, Sergey's promoter, also suggested Sanchez's comments were unfair, insisting that version of Sergey was still a work in progress when he trained under Sanchez.
One must wonder, though, what Team Canelo sees that makes them so eager to challenge the fearsome Kovalev. They obviously see something and it might be related to some of the apparent issues Kovalev had when sparring Golovkin.
2.Vulnerable to the body
When Canelo vs Kovalev was initially rumored, trainer Sanchez also suggested Canelo would defeat Kovalev with his bodywork. We've seen Kovalev get hit and hurt to the body, especially in his rematch with Ward. But Ward is a naturally bigger and rangier fighter than Canelo and their styles are different.
Nevertheless, remember how successful Canelo worked the body against the rangier Rocky Fielding last December? It was beautiful. It was violent. And most of all, Fielding had no answer for it.
Playing online poker in Kansas is easy to do once you read this article's expert advice about poker sites, bonuses, deposits, withdrawals, and more! Online poker kansas. The state of Kansas has regulated online gambling, which means players can play online poker for real money. Detailed Kansas Online Poker & Gambling Law Guide - Find out the current legislation status, and which US poker sites are accepting players from Kansas. Kansas offers a state lottery and pari-mutuel wagering options, but it is a long way from offering iGaming. There's little talk of online gaming and poker.
.. But Kovalev's backers would insist Rocky Fielding is certainly not Sergey Kovalev.
Expect to see Canelo try to work the body as he did with Fielding below. How much success he'll have remains to be seen.
3. Age / Recent Performances
Is Kovalev starting to slow down at 36? There was certainly no shame in losing to Andre Ward. Kovalev also redeemed himself well after losing his first bout with Eleider Alvarez. And more recently, Sergey rallied back to brilliantly knockout previously unbeaten Anthony Yarde after appearing to be on the verge of getting stopped himself.
Yes, Kovalev is getting touched up more these days but Canelo's advocates shouldn't place a great deal of emphasis on Sergey's age. After all, he arguably deserved the nod in the first Ward fight, was having his way with Alvarez in their first bout before getting caught with a big shot, and rebounded heroically to comeback and KO a young, hungry knockout artist in the 11th Round of a fight he was controlling.
Contrary to herd mentality, Kovalev hasn't been exposed as an old man; he's been exposed as a bad ass.
His most recent performances against Alvarez and Yarde tell us he has fine recuperative powers, a solid chin, and can stick and move like a pure boxer to win a fight on points if need be.
And aside from the great Andre Ward, he's decisively defeated every opponent he's face to date.
4. A-side vs B-side
If Canelo vs Kovalev goes to the distance, the onus will be on Kovalev, the champion, to separate himself and leave no doubt.
I hate to say it but it's true. Despite rare cases, the A side fighter generally receives the benefit of the doubt in a close, high-profile fight.
Joe Louis vs Jersey Joe Walcott I, Muhammad Ali vs Ken Norton III, Sugar Ray Leonard VS Marvin Hagler, Oscar De La Hoya vs Felix Sturm, Ward vs Kovalev I, De La Hoya vs Whitaker, Ali vs Shavers, Marciano vs LaStarza I and more..
If, for instance, nothing happens in the first two rounds while the fighters are still trying to adapt to each other's style, Canelo will likely enter Round 3 with a 20-18 lead on the cards.
Canelo arguably benefited from being the A-side in his draw with Gennady Golovkin and razor thin wins over Erislandy Lara and Daniel Jacobs. Conversely, Andre Ward, as the A-side fighter against Kovalev, arguably got the benefit of the doubt in his first bout with Sergey, winning a close but unanimous decision.
In sum
Canelo Alvarez is a special fighter who is extremely hard to hit cleanly and is very versatile in the ring.It's easy to see why he will open as the clear favorite. But, a 7 to 1 favorite? That's a bit ridiculous.
Look for the odds to tighten a bit but don't be surprised if Canelo is still a 4 to 1 favorite come fight time, with Kovalev being a 2 1/2 or 3 to 1 underdog.
Related FightSaga StoriesRelated FightSaga Stories
Tagged under:User comments
2 comments
Odds Canelo Vs Kovalev Vs
Odds Canelo Vs Kovalev Mcgregor
